Climate-based descriptive models of dengue fever: the 2002 epidemic in Colima, Mexico

Citation metadata

Authors: Gerardo Chowell and Fabio Sanchez
Date: June 2006
From: Journal of Environmental Health(Vol. 68, Issue 10)
Publisher: National Environmental Health Association
Document Type: Article
Length: 2,699 words

Main content

Abstract :

Dengue is a public health problem on the rise in many tropical regions and affects approximately 100 million people every year worldwide. In this paper, the authors retrospectively assess the association between five climatological variables and dengue incidence using data from the 2002 dengue epidemic in Colima, Mexico. Pluvial precipitation (mm), evaporation (mm), and mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures ([degrees]C) were obtained from local meteorological stations. The highest correlation of dengue incidence with maximum temperature was found at a lag of one month, and the highest correlation for evaporation was found at a lag of three months. A multiple-linear-regression model that includes all the climatological variables was correlated with 94 percent of the observed variance. Two simpler linear models with variables significant at the 99 percent confidence level were correlated with 88 percent (Precipitation + Evaporation) and 79 percent (Precipitation + Maximum Temperature) of the observed variance.

Source Citation

Source Citation
Chowell, Gerardo, and Fabio Sanchez. "Climate-based descriptive models of dengue fever: the 2002 epidemic in Colima, Mexico." Journal of Environmental Health, vol. 68, no. 10, June 2006, pp. 40+. Accessed 28 May 2022.

Gale Document Number: GALE|A147204945