Most previous research on divorce focused on identifying factors within a marriage that help determine the marriages that are likely to end in divorce. The range of possible predictors is vast, but generally falls into two main categories: preexisting factors and relationship factors. Preexisting factors include such things as social conditions and previous experiences. Terri Orbuch, Joseph Veroff, and colleagues examined several factors that lead to divorce as part of a large-scale longitudinal study called the Early Years of Marriage Project. In a 2002 study, they focused specifically on identifying who would divorce during a 14-year period. Their results show that two key social factors, race and education, predicted divorce such that African American couples and those with less education were more likely to divorce. Income does not significantly predict divorce when controlling for other variables such as race and education. Interestingly, other research finds that socioeconomic status does not predict who will divorce, but does relate to the reasons divorcees give for the divorce. Those with a lower socioeconomic status mention substance abuse and concerns about money, whereas those with a higher socioeconomic status mention incompatibility and problems with the relationship. Other preexisting Page 209  |  Top of Articleconditions such as previous experiences are predictive of divorce as well. Each of the following have been identified as predictors of divorce in previous research: having a previous marriage, having divorced parents, having a child before marriage, cohabitating before marriage, having low religiosity, and getting married before age 25.

Not surprisingly, dynamics within the relationship itself can also predict divorce. At the most basic level, the likelihood of divorce increases as the length of the relationship increases. However, a longitudinal study by Ted Huston and colleagues known as the Processes of Adaptation in Intimate Relationships (PAIR) project shows that the first few years are crucial. By following more than 150 couples since 1981, Huston and colleagues were able to look at three competing models for why marriages ended. Models included enduring dynamics (i.e., problems that couples bring with them to the marriage), emergent distress (i.e., stresses and strains the couple experiences while married), and disillusionment (i.e., couples start out idealizing marriage, but realize it is not as perfect as they thought). The data show that disillusionment predicted divorce best. Couples who experienced the greatest declines in satisfaction, love, and affection over the first year were more likely to divorce.

Other research has identified several additional relationship factors that predict divorce. Each of the following has been identified as a predictor of divorce in previous research: having low relationship satisfaction, having low sexual satisfaction, having dissimilar attitudes, having negative interactions, spending little amounts of time together, having high amounts of conflict, and using negative communication strategies. Also, research shows that divorce is more likely if one partner has high levels of neuroticism, or is uncomfortable with intimacy.

Because of the large number of divorce predictors, it is useful to have an overarching framework to help understand how the various factors relate to each other. In 1995, Benjamin Karney and Thomas Bradbury proposed the vulnerability-stress-adaptation model to account for many of the factors that predict divorce. In this model, marital stability is determined by marital quality, which is the result of the interaction of several factors. First, the model states that people bring preexisting factors to their marriage (e.g., demographic variables, previous experiences, personality), known as enduring vulnerabilities. The second factor involves the experiences the couple has together (e.g., unemployment, loss of a family member, parenting, health problems), known as stressful events. Enduring vulnerabilities and stressful events influence how couples cope with issues (e.g., how problems are assessed, quality of communication, quality of support) known as adaptive processes. If the adaptive processes are sufficient, the impact of stressful events and enduring vulnerabilities are minimized and result in marital quality and stability. However, if adaptive processes are insufficient, marital quality suffers and divorce is more likely.

Research on divorce outcomes has largely focused on the negative consequences of divorce. Compared with married individuals, those who experience divorce have lower well-being, more health problems, greater mortality risk, smaller social networks, and lower standards of living. Women, however, are worse off economically, whereas men's economic condition improves slightly. Despite the disadvantaged financial state, women generally experience better adjustment to divorce compared with men. Women's successful adjustment is the result of their more developed social support networks and to their propensity for initiating the divorce. Because women are aware of the relationship problems and can begin thinking about divorce earlier, they are better prepared for life after divorce. In contrast, men are less prepared and more likely to cope ineffectively (e.g., engage in substance abuse) upon divorce. Finally, because of the typical unfair distribution of labor in households, divorce brings new desirable roles to women (e.g., head of house-hold) and less desirable roles to men (e.g., household chores).

Divorce influences children as well as the former spouses. In a 2000 review of thousands of divorce studies conducted in the 1990s, Amato identified the main ways divorce influences children. Generally, divorce has a small negative effect on children such that children of divorce have worse school performance, more behavioral problems, and lower well-being. Some positives, such as increased closeness between mother and daughter, have also been noted. Some research also notes that divorce is a more desirable alternative to a child experiencing a high conflict Page 210  |  Top of Articleintact marriage. High levels of conflict pre- or post-divorce have been associated with children's poor school performance, poor relationships with peers, aggression, and emotional insecurity. Divorce may also influence children's subsequent romantic relationships. Compared with children from intact marriages, children of divorce are more wary about commitment, more likely to view divorce as a viable option, more emotionally involved in their romantic relationships, more likely to have earlier sexual experiences, and have less idealistic views of marriage.