Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

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Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Document Type: Author abstract; Report
Length: 186 words

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Abstract :

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Peal (8-24% of present-day total) when C[O.sub.2] fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Peal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Peal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required. adaptation | agriculture | hydrology | uncertainty www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1222474110

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Gale Document Number: GALE|A362062998