Ecological risk assessment of wetland vegetation under projected climate scenarios in the Sanjiang Plain, China.

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Date: Nov. 1, 2020
Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
Document Type: Report
Length: 511 words

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Abstract :

Keywords Climate change; Wetlands; Vegetation productivity; Plant diversity; Ecological risk assessment Highlights * Spatio-temporal ecological risk of wetland vegetation in the Sanjiang Plain under projected climate change was evaluated. * Most wetland vegetation in the Sanjiang Plain face high risk that caused by precipitation fluctuation. * Several national wetland nature reserves were ranked with higher risk at level-3. Abstract Wetland ecosystems have comprehensive ecological functions and are sensitive to climate change. Under climate change, wetlands plant community productivity and diversity may be affected. In previous studies of wetlands, the effects of climate change have been primarily investigated using field observations, factor-controlled experiments, and mechanism analyses. However, the ecological risks to wetland communities under potential long-term climate change on a regional scale remain uncertain. The Sanjiang Plain is the largest area of natural marsh wetlands and the national ecological functions in China. In this study, the changes in plant productivity and diversity of wetland ecosystems in the Sanjiang Plain were simulated under different climate change scenarios (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), and the rank of spatiotemporal risk on a regional scale was estimated using a pressure--state--response model. Temperature and precipitation had average rates of increase of 0.44 °C/10a and 12.13 mm/10a, respectively, under different climate change scenarios to 2050. The fluctuation range in climatic factors was largest under the RCP8.5 scenario. On a long-term scale, compared with the base year of 2010, vegetation productivity increased significantly under the RCP2.6 scenario, remained almost constant under RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios, and decreased under the RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast to productivity, plant diversity increased under all four scenarios, but the range of increase gradually decreased with the increase in scenarios. Spatially, a fluctuation range change in precipitation was one of the important factors that caused high risks to regional wetlands. In the northwest of the Sanjiang Plain, most wetlands were assessed as high risk at level-3. In the other regions, the risks were lower with the values below level-2, and only a few places were assessed at risk level-3. In national wetland nature reserves, the northeast of the Qixing River, Xingkai Lake, and the Dongfanghong Marsh wetland area were ranked as high risk at level-3. These findings suggest that wetland protection and management should be focus on hydrological allocation and the potential ecological risks to national wetland nature reserves. However, a joint risk assessment of climate change and human activity should be conducted to provide a comprehensive reference for the protection and development of natural marsh wetlands. Author Affiliation: (a) Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agro Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China (b) College of Plant Protection, Yunnan Agricultural University, Yunnan, 650201, China (c) State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 30 April 2020; Revised 10 July 2020; Accepted 15 July 2020 Byline: Jing Fu (a), Juan Liu (b), Xianwei Wang (a), Mengduo Zhang (a), Weiwei Chen [] (a,*), Bin Chen [] (c,**)

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Gale Document Number: GALE|A640387019