Differential sensitivities of electricity consumption to global warming across regions of Argentina.

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From: Climatic Change(Vol. 166, Issue 1-2)
Publisher: Springer
Document Type: Report; Brief article
Length: 356 words

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Keywords: Shape; Threshold temperature; Warm temperature regimes; Cool temperature regimes; Time series analysis; Temperature scenarios Abstract The description of the relationship between temperature (T) and electricity consumption (EC) is key to improving our understanding of a potential climate change amplification feedback and, thus, energy planning. We sought to characterize the relationship between the EC and daily T of different regions of Argentina and use these historical relationships to estimate expected EC under T future scenarios. We used a time series approach to model EC, removing trends and seasonality and accounting for breaks and discontinuities. EC and T data were obtained from Argentine Wholesale Market Administrator Company and global databases, respectively. We evaluate the T-EC model for the period between 1997 and 2014 and two sub-periods: 1997--2001 and 2011--2014. We use modeled temperature projections for the 2027--2044 period based on the Representative Pathway Concentration 4.5 together with our region-specific T-EC models to predict changes in EC due to T changes. The shape of the T-EC relationships is quite stable between periods and regions but varies according to the temperature gradient. We find large increases in EC in warm days (from 40 to 126 Wh/cap/°C) and a region-specific response to cold days (from flat to steep responses). The T at which EC was at minimum varies between 14 and 20 °C and increase in time as mean daily T also increase. Estimated temperature projections translate into an average increase factor of 7.2 in EC with contrasting relative importance between regions of Argentina. Results highlight potential sensitivity of EC to T in the developing countries. Author Affiliation: (1) Instituto de Clima y Agua, INTA, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Nicolás Repetto s/n, Hurlingham, 1686, Buenos Aires, Argentina (2) CONICET, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Buenos Aires, Argentina (3) Facultad de Agronomía, Departamento de métodos cuantitativos y sistemas de información, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina (4) Facultad de Agronomía, Escuela para Graduados, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina (5) IFEVA, Universidad de Buenos Aires, CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina (a) tpropato@agro.uba.ar Article History: Registration Date: 05/18/2021 Received Date: 08/28/2020 Accepted Date: 05/17/2021 Online Date: 05/27/2021 Byline:

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Gale Document Number: GALE|A663370566