Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation.

Citation metadata

From: Climatic Change(Vol. 166, Issue 1-2)
Publisher: Springer
Document Type: Report; Brief article
Length: 345 words

Document controls

Main content

Abstract :

Keywords: Process-based integrated assessment model; IAM; Evaluation; Climate mitigation Abstract Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models' usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community. Author Affiliation: (1) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, UK (2) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria (3) Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Developpement (CIRED), Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, 45 bis, Av. de la Belle Gabrielle, F-94736, Nogent-sur-Marne, France (4) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of The Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany (5) Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam, August-Bebel-Str. 89, 14482, Potsdam, Germany (6) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH, Bilthoven, The Netherlands (7) Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands (8) Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, postboks 7030, 5020, Bergen, Norway (9) The Schumacher Institute, BS1 6XN, Bristol, UK (10) Data Science Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, WC2A 2AE, London, UK (a) charlie.wilson@uea.ac.uk Article History: Registration Date: 04/19/2021 Received Date: 08/12/2019 Accepted Date: 04/19/2021 Online Date: 05/04/2021 Byline:

Source Citation

Source Citation   

Gale Document Number: GALE|A660608643