The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

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From: Climatic Change(Vol. 109, Issue 1-2)
Publisher: Springer
Document Type: Author abstract; Report
Length: 502 words

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Byline: Malte Meinshausen (1,10), S. J. Smith (2), K. Calvin (2), J. S. Daniel (3), M. L. T. Kainuma (4), J-F. Lamarque (5), K. Matsumoto (4,11), S. A. Montzka (12), S. C. B. Raper (6), K. Riahi (7), A. Thomson (2), G. J. M. Velders (8), D.P. P. Vuuren (9,13) Abstract: We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750--2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005--2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected 'best-estimate' global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3degC) range from 1.5degC by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5degC for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example, the lower RCP2.6 pathway represents a strong mitigation scenario and is extended by assuming constant emissions after 2100 (including net negative CO.sub.2 emissions), leading to CO.sub.2 concentrations returning to 360 ppm by 2300. We also present the GHG concentrations for one supplementary extension, which illustrates the stringent emissions implications of attempting to go back to ECP4.5 concentration levels by 2250 after emissions during the century followed the higher RCP6 scenario. Corresponding radiative forcing values are presented for the RCP and ECPs. Author Affiliation: (1) Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany (2) Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, USA (3) Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO, 80305, USA (4) Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan (5) National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA (6) CATE, Manchester Metropolitan University (MMU), Manchester, UK (7) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria (8) National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands (9) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, Netherlands (10) School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (11) School of Environmental Science, The University of Shiga Prefecture (USP), Hikone, Japan (12) Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO, 80305, USA (13) Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands Article History: Registration Date: 01/07/2011 Received Date: 17/09/2010 Accepted Date: 21/06/2011 Online Date: 09/08/2011

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Gale Document Number: GALE|A269435433